Venezuela Weekly Report

Shakeups are the Order of the Day

December 8, 2017BancTrust & Co. Research Team
  • The naming of the new president of CITGO was the start of a series of moves in the national oil industry and the Executive branch trying to fight corruption, ending (so far) with the detentions of former heads of PDVSA and Oil Ministers Eulogio Del Pino and Nelson Martinez
  • New Oil Minister Manuel Quevedo had a quick international debut by participating in the OPEC meeting where the output cut agreement was extended for 9 more months
  • We address ISDA’s announcement on CDS auctions for VENZ and PDVSA bonds. Meanwhile, Clearstream said that they received the cash for the PDV’27 payment but that it will be retained until solving an inquiry on the “irregular manner” it was done

We have had a couple of busy weeks after President Nicolas Maduro ordered a revamp of the oil industry to fight corruption. First, the President decided to name Asdrubal Chavez as the new head of CITGO after Jose Pereira, the company’s acting president (at the time), and other 5 vice-presidents were detained – for more details, check our 24 November Weekly Report PDVSA’s Calling Out its Peers. Nonetheless, one of the most important announcements was the one of Major General Manuel Quevedo as Oil Minister and President of PDVSA.

At first glance, Quevedo’s move might be considered as negative due to several reasons, starting from the fact that he does not have experience in the industry and is replacing two characters with much more experience in the oil sector – Eulogio Del Pino and Nelson Martinez. Furthermore, it remains to be seen the impact of his naming in the debt renegotiation process but creditors might see with less confidence that key positions for the country’s economy are being held by a less market-friendly individual.

In spite of all this, we still believe that the ideology that Manuel Quevedo will follow through his stint will be the one that President Nicolas Maduro and the rest of the Executive branch have preached so far, thus he is unlikely to bring a turnaround to this general view. In this respect, the fact that one of his first statements was that PDVSA has the capability to honor its financial obligations serves as one example of this. Therefore, we don’t see debt restructuring negotiations being affected significantly as a consequence of his naming.

From our standpoint, Quevedo, the former Housing Minister, will instead serve the main roles of commanding a cleansing of PDVSA – after the myriad of arrests and investigations of different corruption schemes – and reinforcing political support towards President Nicolas Maduro. In the meantime, Quevedo’s move provoked also a cabinet reshuffle, with his former position now being occupied by General Ildemaro Villarroel while former governor – and head of the tax authority – Jose Vielma Mora will take charge of the Foreign Trade and Investments Ministry.

Venezuela Weekly Report

PDVSA’s Calling Out its Peers

December 1, 2017BancTrust & Co. Research Team
  • In the framework of the IV Forum of Gas Exporting Countries, PdVSA GAS VP Cesar Triana confirmed discussions with JV partners aiming to obtain financing in exchange for oil & gas projects
  • Crystallex and Venezuela have apparently reached what could be the largest settlement 
  • PdVSA announced it has initiated the transfer of the coupon payments for the PDV’20 and PDV’22

The IV Forum of Gas Exporting Countries (FPEG for its words in Spanish) was the event of the week, taking place in Bolivia starting Tuesday 21 ending today, with Venezuela playing a key role in talks and proposals and even making some announcements about future plans.

In this regard, PdVSA GAS’s VP Cesar Triana‎ made reference to the plans that the company is trying to deliver in order to help recover its production levels throughout different financing strategies, highlighting the talks that the company is holding with its JV partners: Rosneft, Eni, Repsol, and Statoil. The talks will be initially intended to obtain credit for oil & gas projects; which in our view defines the new strategy of PdVSA to get fresh financing while, at the same time, avoids the obstacles imposed by US sanctions. We view these intentions targeting a production recovery as positive, as this is a critical issue that must be addressed in order to guarantee an improvement of future cash flows; especially if they want to take advantage of higher oil prices, and if they want to reverse the current decreasing trend in its production. On this specific matter, Triana stated that they plan to increase oil output in around 500kbpd for 2018.‎

Continuing with the search of routes to avoid US sanctions, it is well known that the state-owned oil company is also trying to negotiate the change of currency for some payments made in US Dollars to Chinese Yuan or Russian Ruble. However, we don’t see this very successful as these currencies are not the most attractive options for the majority of suppliers, which would prefer harder currencies. In the restructuring matter, Triana said that efforts are going well as, according to their information, most creditors are concentrated in China, Russia, and Europe. He also hinted that as they are currently having cash flow problems, their aim is to find some debt relief into extending payments for a longer term.

Finally a Settlement?

After numerous attempts from gold miner Crystallex to fight the expropriation of its assets in the country, it seems that yesterday November 23 they finally reached an agreement with the Venezuelan government, according to the information provided by unofficial sources. This agreement is expected to be ratified today at a court in Ontario and it is expected to be the largest settlement agreed by the government, moving into a range of USD1bn – the amount settled with Gold Reserve – to USD1.4bn – the amount awarded by the ICSID to Crystallex.

Venezuela Weekly Report

A Financial Roller Coaster

November 17, 2017BancTrust & Co. Research Team
  • Uncertainty around the November 13 meeting was the leading theme this week, as more information is expected to be disclosed at the event according to Finance Minister Simon Zerpa
  • Principal Payment for the PDV’17 was made, boosting both Sovereign and PdVSA curves. Meanwhile, CORPOELEC missed the end-of-grace-period coupon payment, making ELECAR’18 enter into default … for only a couple of hours

Last Thursday November 2, the market was surprised as President Nicolas Maduro announced that the Government would start a “refinancing and restructuring” process – as reported in Our last Venezuela Weekly Report – and, even when we expected to get a clearer picture this week, this has not been the case. However, yesterday morning the new Finance Minister and PdVSA CFO Simon Zerpa stated that investors should attend Monday’s meeting in order to get more details. This announcement – in our view – was intended to persuade investors to come to Caracas, as they presented it as the only option to get any disclosure regarding both Venezuela and PdVSA bonded debt; nevertheless, there has been no clear answer from the investor’s side, and uncertainty increases.

In detail, the decision to carry out a meeting in Caracas with a committee comprised of sanctioned officials does not seem like an appealing option but, like a sort of a clearing path, the U.S Treasury Department decided to release a statement in which they informed that U.S investors are allowed to attend the meeting as long as they don’t engage into any agreements or transactions with sanctioned individuals. Nevertheless, this kind of “permission” did not seem to cause a widespread effect among investors and – in our opinion – the level of uncertainty generated by the government around the place, time, and the agenda is making the meeting look less attractive.

Sanctions and OFAC Statements

We see that sanctions play a confusing role this week, not only regarding attendance but also for any restructuring feasibility, as doubts emerge on whether the government will be able to make a restructuring program without the approval of the National Assembly (“AN” in Spanish) or if US persons could participate in any new deal, as it would be considered new debt. On this matter, the OFAC released a statement yesterday in which they argued that they could consider releasing new licenses for individual cases of new debt, depending on the circumstances; and, in this case, we can interpret the renegotiation as one of the circumstances. However, even with a license, they may require this new debt to be authorized by the AN. Even when the AN’s approval can be seen as an obstacle, we believe that in this specific case the renewed dialogue between the government and the opposition could play a key role, considering this to be a negotiation element for both parties.

Venezuela Weekly Report

The “Refinancing and Restructuring” of the Venezuelan Debt

November 10, 2017BancTrust & Co. Research Team
  • President Nicolas Maduro announced, amid operational issues to access the international finance system, a “refinancing and restructuring” process in all of the country’s outstanding debt
  • Coming up next is the start of the round of negotiations with bondholders to discuss how the restructuring will proceed. The government created a commission headed by VP El Aissami, Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino and PDVSA’s Nelson Martinez
  • Both sovereign and PDVSA curves have suffered severe intraday drops, as the market is assessing negatively the probabilities of a successful debt restructuring

In the last few weeks, Venezuela has given the strongest signals of maintaining the willingness to pay in spite of operational issues, as in the last two weeks they have honored the largest debt payments corresponding to the last quarter of the year, both for Venezuela and PDVSA: the principal amortization of the PDV’20 for USD842mn and PDV’17’s maturity – for USD1.17bn.

In addition to this, president Nicolas Maduro made one strategic move in his cabinet: designating PDVSA’s CFO, Simon Zerpa, as Finance Minister. As we stated in our previous report, this consolidated Zerpa’s position and overview in all finance matters pertaining to PDVSA and the sovereign. This, inadvertently, served as setting the table up for the new presidential decisions on debt matters: refinancing and restructuring the entire stockpile of debt for both Venezuela and PDVSA once the PDV’17 payment is completed. We will dig deeper into the available details so far as to try paint the whole picture.

What happened?

Yesterday, president Maduro expressed the country has faced several operational issues in processing numerous payments in order to import medicine and food as a consequence of the present US sanctions on the country and main government officials. Moreover, he also announced that financial services companies like Euroclear have blocked transactions relating to Venezuelan bonds, closed bank accounts and refused to service the country making it more complicated to operate in the international financial system.

Amid this situation he explained Venezuela has seen all its possibilities of debt refinancing closed, so he decided to proceed with a “refinancing and restructuring” process in all of the outstanding country’s debt, including PDVSA. We want to emphasize that throughout his statements he pointed in several occasions that the willingness to pay remains intact, but he want “better conditions to be able to serve the people’s needs”.

Venezuela Weekly Report

PDVSA: Keeping the Promise Despite the Rumors

November 3, 2017BancTrust & Co. Research Team
  • Once more, PDVSA proved its willingness and, more importantly, its capacity to pay as they honored today the scheduled amortization of the PDV’20 for an amount of USD841.88mn
  • Uncertainty before the payment generated mixed results on both PDVSA and VENZ curves. We note the influence of the PDV’20 payment on the performance of the soon-to-mature PDV’17.
  • On the local front, former MinFin Ramon Lobo was designated as the new President of the Central Bank, while his successor at the MOF will be PDVSA CFO, Simon Zerpa

This week has not been an easy one for either PDVSA or VENZ curves amid the uncertainty of whether PDVSA was to make payment corresponding to the first amortization of the PDV’20 for USD842mn. After the nervousness that hit the market just the day before, and doubts on how the state oil company was going to proceed earlier this morning, the state-owned oil company reported before midday that they had made the payment. In the official communiqué, they remarked the achievement of making payment despite the difficulties imposed by the international financial blockade, a direct consequence of US sanctions driven by US President Donald Trump.

Additionally, they informed that the money had been transferred to the accounts of US-based bank J.P. Morgan; however, they did not mention anything on the interest payment that it was also due for today (USD143.1mn). In that last matter, we previously anticipated that the company would prioritize principal payments and that it was going to use the 30-day grace period that rules over the coupons, especially when a bigger payment is yet to come next week with the PDV’17N.

Venezuelan fixed income performance this week, in general, can be defined as reactive as the market changed its appreciation from positive to negative, and backwards, within hours responding to rumors; and for us, that is the key on what we saw this week: rumors.

As we take a look on the PDV’17N, maturing next Thursday for a total of USD1,170mn between principal and interest, we notice a high influence from this week’s expectations. In this regard, today’s payment served to prove that the state-owned oil company effectively has the resources to pay and maintained its willingness intact; the reason why recent statements made by former PDVSA CEO Rafael Ramirez, and even by President Maduro himself, should not be disregarded.

  • Tuesday, January 16 2018

    Venezuela:

    - Yesterday the President Nicolas Maduro gave its yearly speech which should be something close to the state of the union and that according to the constitution should be presented in front of the National Assembly. However, this year and arguing the illegality of the National Assembly, the decision was to give his speech in front of the National Constituent Assembly. In detail, more than a state of the union this was one of the usual speech of the President with not much data to collect. Among

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  • Monday, January 15 2018

    Venezuela:

    - The dialogue meeting held in the Dominican Republic between members of the opposition and the government last weekend culminated again without any results. International mediators indicated that although some agreements were reached, several points remain pending and both parties will meet again this Thursday, January 18. In our opinion, it was expected that results would not be achieved,as we have been saying we believe that the most likely to happen is that the negotiation rounds will culmin

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  • Friday, January 12 2018

    Venezuela:

    - The National Electoral Council (CNE in Spanish) announced that it has approved the schedule for the validation of political parties that did not participate in the last municipal elections which it will take place on 27 and 28 of January. The process will be carried out to comply with the order of the National Constituent Assembly (ANC), which has as its sole purpose to be another obstacle for the opposition. We believe that at the moment the attention is focused on the negotiations in the Dom

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  • Thursday, January 11 2018

    Venezuela:

    - The situation regarding Venezuela’s debt with Brazil received yesterday two mixed updates, as the Brazilian Ministry of Finance reported that the first paid an old debt but that it is still in arrears with another payment. In detail, the ministry informed that Venezuela paid USD262.5mn – corresponding to the May-August period of 2017 – on 5 January as part of their commitments under the Reciprocal Credit and Payments Agreement (CCR), which is part of the benefits of the Latin American In

    Read More >>

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