- 2019: Keeping the pace up
- DR’s economy will shine again in 2019
- Tourism keeps going strong
- Foreign currency flows to reinforce reserves’ position in 2018
- Low inflation returns in 2018. Next year, story could be different
- Fiscal accounts to keep on positive roll
- Revenues improving at better than expected rates
- Efficiency in collection will have the final say
Another year is gone and DR continues with its same old habits: Region-leading GDP growth rate, massive foreign currency inflows, inflation under control, among others. 2018 proved our point 2017’s deceleration in economic activity was nothing more than a bump, and we expect next year to continue the same way.
Positive results, as usual, tend to undermine some issues that, in spite of being urgent matters, continue being delayed maybe because they are politically inconvenient – if you asked us last year, we may have said some advances on such issues (we will tell you which later) were possible; today, any advances may be a miracle. Nonetheless, it is time to dig into 2018 results and our 2019 forecasts, so fasten your seatbelts!
2019: Keeping up the pace
Economic activity last year suffered mightily after hurricanes severe damages, but this economy is resilient and that was proved this year.
We estimate DR will close 2018 with a GDP growth rate of around 6.8%, besting every official forecast made for this year. This leads to a GDP nearing every time more to USD80bn, a milestone we expect to be easily achieved next year.
As we see it, DR’s economy will shine again in 2019 to see GDP growth rates surrounding 6.2%. In this regard, we consider activities like tourism and construction, as well as exports dynamism, will lead economy’s way.