- 2019’ political dynamic will define Argentina’s future
- CFK’s plans so far
- Latest survey
- Macri’s real possibilities
- Opening with macroeconomic variables under control
- Monetary and Fiscal policy are the fight flags
- No rest in the battle against inflation
- GDP: A collateral effect
- Decisions to target country risk
- Threads from the outside
- Argentina’s appealing to investors
- Argentina’s current curve
Argentina has just finished a year of unveiling its long dated structural deficiencies that needed more than a gradualist approach. All our expectations for 2018, as well as the market’s feeling, were destroyed in the middle of the 2Q18. The necessity to call for help from the IMF set the severity of the situation, and after receiving the biggest bailout approval in history (USD57.1bn), the agreement with the fund governed 2H18 and will definitely rule 2019.
Given the experienced factors of 2018, we would set our perspectives on a more conservative approach and will divide them in the three factors that for us, will define de mid-term perspectives on Argentina: 2019 elections, economic variables and country risk.
2019 political dynamic will define Argentina’s future
As it is widely known, 2019 is the year that Macri will try to win reelection, and our perception over Macri is simple: He is not the preferred candidate.
Macri has shown a lack of reality when it comes to evaluating Argentina’s problems, nonetheless, he is the best option available in order to avoid the return to Peronism, specifically, the return of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK). Thus, we believe it is of great importance to define CFK’s plans so far, as this will in turn define Macri’s strategy.