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  • Friday, July 31 2015

    Venezuela:

    - Summarizing the general conclusion from the latest polls, the opposition nowadays represents a clear political majority, but not necessarily a consolidated one in our view. According to the Venebarómetro survey made by IVAD, 59.5% of Venezuelans identify themselves as “opposition”, against 26% that identify themselves as “chavista”. So far, it looks pretty good for the opposition, but when disentangling the hard-cores of each political force – defined as the people directly identified and/or involved in political movements and parties -, onl

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  • Thursday, July 30 2015
    Venezuela:

    - After seeing PDVSA’15 priced around 100, it was not a surprise to see this news. As it happened in 2013 and 2014, the government bought back an important share of its sovereign and quasi-sovereign debt maturing in 2H15 according to the local newspaper El Mundo. In detail, unofficial sources quoted by El Mundo say that around 30%-40% of this debt was already repurchased by the government, reducing the debt outstanding amount to be paid from USD6.39bn to a range between USD4.47bn and USD3.83bn. We saw this strategy back in 2013 and 2014, when the econom

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  • Wednesday, July 29 2015
    Venezuela:

    - President Maduro discarded the request of international observation for upcoming parliamentary elections, claiming that Venezuela “is and will not be monitored by anyone”. This statement, given after a meeting with UN’s General Secretary Ban Ki Moon where an agreement was reached to activate the Good Officer’s Mechanism to settle Esequibo’s dispute with Guyana, comes one day after the opposition leader Henrique Capriles asked to OEA’s General Secretary Luis Almagro the designation of international observers in order to avoid the violation of

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  • Monday, July 27 2015
    Venezuela:

    - WTI crude oil reached its lowest point since March, fluctuating between USD47.93- 48.13 on Sunday. During the 1H15, the Venezuelan oil basket was sold at an average of USD3.39 below WTI crude oil. With Sunday’s lowest point at USD47.93, Venezuela could be looking at a higher than expected deficit (if this trend maintains), although it’s too early to estimate as the country continues to turnover its accounts receivable. WTI prices plunged on Sunday after Iran released a list of oil-related assets worth billions of US dollars. The country plans to col

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BancTrust & Co. is a boutique investment bank dedicated to Latin America and specialized in High Beta LatAm Credit Markets; mainly Venezuela, Argentina, and Dominican Republic.

The firm operates through various entities located across The Americas and Europe. As a group of companies, we facilitate global market transactions to a diverse client base that includes corporate treasuries, financial institutions, asset managers, and governments and its entities.

  • Venezuela Weekly Report

    A Golden Bear

    July 31 2015 Hernán Yellati & Guillermo Quiroga

    Gold market consensus forecast for the end of this year is a bearish one, which could affect how the gold stock in the Central Bank (BCV) is valued. Market analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting further drops in the spot price and a downward trend leading to a price of USD984 per ounce by year end in average, which could represent a 16.6% decrease y-o-y. This average is supported by the market sentiment after witnessing a volatile and not encouraging gold price performance in the past 3 years, after it broke first a technical support level around USD1,200 per ounce in November 2014, and another support level around USD1,140 last June. Read more

  • Argentina Weekly Report

    Holdouts & Blue Dollar: On the Government’s Back

    July 31 2015 Hernán Yellati & Guillermo Quiroga

    On 30 July, Judge Griesa fixed a hearing between Argentina and holdouts for 12 August. In the hearing, holdouts are likely to request the judge to impose sanctions on Argentina, due to the Republic’s failure to allow for discovery requests. Holdouts have sought information on assets held by YPF, ENARSA, Banco Nacion and even the Central Bank (BCRA) that could be attached by courts. In 2014 the US Supreme Court had ruled that even though some of these assets may not be seized due to sovereign immunity, Argentina still was bound to supply information. So far, Argentina has not complied with the request so that it could be subject to sanctions for non-complying with court orders. Read more

  • Quantitative Reports

    EM Quantitative Chartbook Weekly Report

    July 17 2015 Research & Strategy Team

    Below we produce the Par Equivalent CDS spread metrics in order to assess the credit relative value and identify the bonds that are cheap or expensive relative to what we describe as a theoretical fair value curve. Graphs and tables below show results of these calculations for Venezuela, PDVSA, Ukraine, Russia, Argentina, Panama, Turkey, Ecuador, Mexico and Brazil. Read more

  • BancTrust: “Venezuela pagará la deuda a costa de agotar sus activos”

    BancTrust: “Venezuela pagará la deuda a costa de agotar sus activos”

    July 14 2015 El Nacional

    La consultora afirma que el déficit de Pdvsa ha sido de 11,2 millardos de dólares, por lo que el gobierno ha usado las reservas para Read more